Sometimes football matches just don’t quite follow the story of the game.
In the Premier League this weekend, Frank Lampard felt hard done by as his Chelsea team were thrashed 4-0 by Manchester United at Old Trafford.
The 2019/20 campaign was always going to be tough for the Blues, who have a transfer ban, several injuries, and sold stars Eden Hazard and David Luiz but a unflattering scoreline didn’t help their cause.
And they’re not the only team who perhaps suffered some injustice on the opening weekend with ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) statistics suggesting Southampton should have come away with a lot more a than a 3-0 pasting at the hands of Burnley.
So, how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by xG?
Alexander-Arnold ‘as good as Beckham’ at crossing, says ex-Liverpool star
get rid of it
Murphy calls for VAR to be scrapped: ‘Something doesn’t feel right’
Arsenal equal stunning 2018/19 record after one game of new season
‘Too early to criticise Lampard’ – Ex-Chelsea star responds to Mourinho comments
Harry Maguire brings ‘Van Dijk-level calmness’ to Man United, says ex-defender
Lukaku makes incredible start to Inter career after £72m transfer from Man United
The alternative result of every Premier League fixture, according to statistics
PSG fans launch scathing attack on Neymar and Tuchel admits he understands
How Aston Villa nullified Tottenham before Eriksen was the catalyst for victory
Steve Bruce clears up bizarre tactical misunderstanding with Newcastle debutant
VAR delays ruining ‘the spirit of the game’, says Wolves boss Espirito Santo
Frank Lampard left stunned by Jose Mourinho’s criticism of Chelsea starlet
Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their stats.
Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
20. West Ham United – Real position = 20
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.25
19. Aston Villa – Real position = 15
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.28
18. Chelsea – Real position = 19
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.66
17. Norwich City – Real position = 16
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.75
16. Newcastle – Real position = 14
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.77
15. Bournemouth – Real position = 11
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1
14. Crystal Palace – Real position = 12
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.06
13. Burnley – Real position = 4
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.12
12. Watford – Real position = 18
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 1.15
11. Leicester City – Real position = 14
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.26
LIVE on talkSPORT
talkSPORT is your home of live football! Here’s what’s coming up this week…
- Salford City vs Leeds United (Tuesday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT
- Huddersfield Town vs Fulham (Friday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Arsenal vs Burnley (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT
- Sunderland vs Portsmouth (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Norwich City vs Newcastle United (Saturday, 3pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, 5.30pm) – talkSPORT
- Reading vs Cardiff City (Sunday, 12pm) – talkSPORT 2
10. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 13
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.28
9. Brighton – Real position = 5
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.49
8. Southampton – Real position = 17
Real points = 0 | Expected points = 1.53
7. Everton – Real position = 7
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.62
6. Sheffield United – Real position = 9
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 55.04
5. Arsenal – Real position = 7
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.86
4. Liverpool – Real position = 3
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.01
3. Manchester United – Real position = 2
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.14
2. Tottenham – Real position = 6
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.59
1. Manchester City – Real position = 1
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.63