Alternative Premier League table, based on expected goals


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Sometimes football matches just don’t quite follow the story of the game.

In the Premier League this weekend, Frank Lampard felt hard done by as his Chelsea team were thrashed 4-0 by Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard applauds the clubs travelling fans

Getty Images – Getty

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard applauds the clubs travelling fans

The 2019/20 campaign was always going to be tough for the Blues, who have a transfer ban, several injuries, and sold stars Eden Hazard and David Luiz but a unflattering scoreline didn’t help their cause.

And they’re not the only team who perhaps suffered some injustice on the opening weekend with ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) statistics suggesting Southampton should have come away with a lot more a than a 3-0 pasting at the hands of Burnley.

So, how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by xG?

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Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. West Ham United – Real position = 20

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.25

19. Aston Villa – Real position = 15

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.28

John McGinn gave the Villans the lead at the new Tottenham Hotspur stadium

AFP or licensors

John McGinn gave the Villans the lead at the new Tottenham Hotspur stadium

18. Chelsea – Real position = 19

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.66

17. Norwich City –  Real position = 16

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.75

16. Newcastle –  Real position = 14

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 0.77

Steve Bruce is now in charge at Newcastle United

Getty Images – Getty

Steve Bruce is now in charge at Newcastle United

15. Bournemouth – Real position = 11

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1

14. Crystal Palace –  Real position = 12

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.06

13. Burnley –  Real position = 4

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.12

Ashley Barnes celebrates scoring against Southampton

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Ashley Barnes celebrates scoring against Southampton

12. Watford –  Real position = 18

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 1.15

11. Leicester City –  Real position = 14

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.26

LIVE on talkSPORT

talkSPORT is your home of live football! Here’s what’s coming up this week…

  • Salford City vs Leeds United (Tuesday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT
  • Huddersfield Town vs Fulham (Friday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Arsenal vs Burnley (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT
  • Sunderland vs Portsmouth (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Norwich City vs Newcastle United (Saturday, 3pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, 5.30pm) – talkSPORT
  • Reading vs Cardiff City (Sunday, 12pm) – talkSPORT 2

10. Wolverhampton Wanderers –  Real position = 13

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.28

Wolves are looking to avoid a sophomore slump

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Wolves are looking to avoid a sophomore slump

9. Brighton –  Real position = 5

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.49

8. Southampton –  Real position = 17

Real points = 0 | Expected points = 1.53

7. Everton –  Real position = 7

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 1.62

6. Sheffield United –  Real position = 9

Real points = 1 | Expected points = 55.04

Billy Sharp celebrated his late strike wildly

Getty Images – Getty

Billy Sharp celebrated his late strike wildly

5. Arsenal –  Real position = 7

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 1.86

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored a vital goal for Arsenal against Newcastle

Getty

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored a vital goal for Arsenal against Newcastle

4. Liverpool –  Real position = 3

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.01

3. Manchester United  –  Real position = 2

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.14

Manchester United duo Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford celebrate

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Manchester United duo Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford celebrate

2. Tottenham –  Real position = 6

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.59

Tanguy Ndombele celebrates with Tottenham teammate Moussa Sissoko

AFP or licensors

Tanguy Ndombele celebrates with Tottenham teammate Moussa Sissoko

1. Manchester City –  Real position = 1

Real points = 3 | Expected points = 2.63

Sterling inspired City to a comfortable win at West Ham

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Sterling inspired City to a comfortable win at West Ham

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