The alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 1 fixture, according to statistics


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It’s feels pretty damn good having Premier League football back.

On the talkSPORT Network we brought you three matches on Saturday, kicking off with Manchester City’s thumping win over West Ham and ending with Tottenham’s comeback against Aston Villa.

City made light work of West Ham at the London Stadium once more

Getty

City made light work of West Ham at the London Stadium once more

We also gave you some of the best insight around as ex-England manager Sam Allardyce ran the rule over Manchester United and Chelsea at Old Trafford, highlighting exactly what Frank Lampard did wrong in his first top flight match in charge of his beloved Blues.

It was certainly an enthralling weekend and despite watching his team get battered on the counter by the Red Devils, Lampard didn’t believe the 4-0 scoreline reflected the true story of the game.

Sometimes this is the case and thanks to advanced data analysis we can now assess the true state of the matches we saw with the ‘expected goals’ metric giving us a better understanding of what the scoreline might have been.

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So, did the results we got reflect what actually happened in the matches we witnessed?

Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the opening round of Premier League matches in the 2019/20 season thanks to statistics from Understat.com

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

Liverpool vs Norwich City

Real result: 4-1

xG result: 1.68-0.83

Liverpool kicked of the new season in fine style with victory over Norwich City

Getty Images

Liverpool kicked of the new season in fine style with victory over Norwich City

West Ham United vs Manchester City

Real result: 0-5

xG result: 1.13-3.16

Bournemouth vs Sheffield United

Real result: 1-1

xG result: 0.89-1.09

Billy Sharp scored his first Premier League goal for the Blades

Getty Images – Getty

Billy Sharp scored his first Premier League goal for the Blades

Burnley vs Southampton

Real result: 3-0

xG result: 2.02-0.13

Crystal Palace vs Everton

Real result: 0-0

xG result: 0.89-1.22

LIVE on talkSPORT

talkSPORT is your home of live football! Here’s what’s coming up this week…

  • Salford City vs Leeds United (Tuesday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT
  • Huddersfield Town vs Fulham (Friday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Arsenal vs Burnley (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT
  • Sunderland vs Portsmouth (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Norwich City vs Newcastle United (Saturday, 3pm) – talkSPORT 2
  • Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, 5.30pm) – talkSPORT
  • Reading vs Cardiff City (Sunday, 12pm) – talkSPORT 2

Watford vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Real result: 0-3

xG result: 0.68-0.86

Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Real result: 3-1

xG result: 2.57-0.64

Harry Kane celebrates scoring against Aston Villa on the opening day of the Premier League season

Getty Images – Getty

Harry Kane celebrates scoring against Aston Villa on the opening day of the Premier League season

Newcastle United vs Arsenal

Real result: 0-1

xG result: 0.37-0.88

Leicester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Real result: 0-0

xG result: 0.53-0.54

Manchester United vs Chelsea

Real result: 4-0

xG result: 2.37-1.37

United ran rampant at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon

Getty Images – Getty

United ran rampant at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon

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Chris Wright

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