It’s feels pretty damn good having Premier League football back.
We also gave you some of the best insight around as ex-England manager Sam Allardyce ran the rule over Manchester United and Chelsea at Old Trafford, highlighting exactly what Frank Lampard did wrong in his first top flight match in charge of his beloved Blues.
It was certainly an enthralling weekend and despite watching his team get battered on the counter by the Red Devils, Lampard didn’t believe the 4-0 scoreline reflected the true story of the game.
Sometimes this is the case and thanks to advanced data analysis we can now assess the true state of the matches we saw with the ‘expected goals’ metric giving us a better understanding of what the scoreline might have been.
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So, did the results we got reflect what actually happened in the matches we witnessed?
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
Liverpool vs Norwich City
Real result: 4-1
xG result: 1.68-0.83
West Ham United vs Manchester City
Real result: 0-5
xG result: 1.13-3.16
Bournemouth vs Sheffield United
Real result: 1-1
xG result: 0.89-1.09
Burnley vs Southampton
Real result: 3-0
xG result: 2.02-0.13
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Real result: 0-0
xG result: 0.89-1.22
LIVE on talkSPORT
talkSPORT is your home of live football! Here’s what’s coming up this week…
- Salford City vs Leeds United (Tuesday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT
- Huddersfield Town vs Fulham (Friday, 7.45pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Arsenal vs Burnley (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT
- Sunderland vs Portsmouth (Saturday, 12.30pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Norwich City vs Newcastle United (Saturday, 3pm) – talkSPORT 2
- Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, 5.30pm) – talkSPORT
- Reading vs Cardiff City (Sunday, 12pm) – talkSPORT 2
Watford vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Real result: 0-3
xG result: 0.68-0.86
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Real result: 3-1
xG result: 2.57-0.64
Newcastle United vs Arsenal
Real result: 0-1
xG result: 0.37-0.88
Leicester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Real result: 0-0
xG result: 0.53-0.54
Manchester United vs Chelsea
Real result: 4-0
xG result: 2.37-1.37